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Hi Chuck,
That is very good question – pretty simple, but very hard to answer. Most likely impossible to answer without measurement. Game performance (from physical standpoint) is constrained by both individual qualities and game demands at hand. Hence, to evaluate performance and it’s limiters we need to measure both, or at least keep one ‘fixed’. Assuming ‘fixed’ or stable physical qualities of the player, certain physical activity metrics can vary more than 30% (CV > 0.3). So, I am not sure how good the game performance (physical, as distance covered and other metrics) are good in judging if someone is ‘ready’ or even if one is playing well (and this includes the drop in distances in the last minutes). Maybe this depends on a level of the player and his current individual qualities. There are too many questions and assumptions to make this more causative (the link btwn individual potential and game expression)
For this reason I like to measure ‘potential’ instead – like MAS or other metrics where we have “tactics” fixed. My suggestion would be to see the normative levels of the players at similar playing level in pre/in season in certain tests and see where your guys are.
Not sure I have helped you here 🙂
Mladen