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Your knowledge of stats is far beyond mine. However I think the formula has to look much further than 6 weeks especially in an endurance athlete.
Its not that simple though.
A major factor to consider is Injury patterns within a sport and also Injury risk of the actual athlete.
Here is an example
2 Endurance athletes female both have a large training base of chronic workload.
Both develop a Meta tarsal stress fracture and lets assume they return at the same time.
One however has a slight -ve energy balance as she did not want to gain weight while being off
the other gained a little weight
On return they start running and as they are training partners do the same volumes intensities etc
6 weeks in one breaks down the other does not
The TSB will be the same for both but another factor in this case energy balance is relevant and has lead to the increase risk of bone stress response.
So prediction of injury is multi factorial using the agile approach these factors can be recognised by the team and dealt with effectively, but more importantly the athletes themselves need to self manage. One girl did the other took an ill judged risk.
